Sports Predictions

An analytics dashboard which predicts what might happen for NBA, NFL, and MLB games. Who said lawyers can’t do math?

Here’s a python implementation of the baseball model. What this demonstrates is that how much pitching drives outcomes in baseball. One additional hit or walk (a change from 1.3 to 1.41 in WHIP) results in a 5.8% increase in the odds that team will win holding hitting and defence constant.

Note on ROI: “52.4% is breaking even (because the casinos keep a small percentage of each bet as a service charge known as the vigorish). The return on investment in sports betting doubles at 53.4% and doubles again every percent higher.” While binary options are not a winner, this is the ROI math that will be sold to unsuspecting investors as sports betting predictions services get more “professionalized” as sports betting comes out of the shadows.

Bettors who are kicked off William Hill due to legitimately winning too much but some of the William Hill trading team thinks that these bettors are going to be long term profitable customers for the book are a potential target for bookmaker looking for a niche market (“CEO Joe Asher will scroll through a list of accounts, flagging any that stand out as potential threats. He will then ask his team of traders why they should continue doing business with these customers. The traders, sources said, regularly resist, promising that a player ultimately will lose back all their winnings and then some. Their resistance, however, has not prevented hundreds of bettors from being put on a list that prohibits them from betting with William Hill in person or on the company’s mobile app. “I would be surprised if it’s not in the thousands,” one industry source said.)